If you're 12 years old at heart, you'll appreciate this chest of drawers.

Yep.

This is true -- economists are terrible at predicting recessions. I picked this up at substack.com's notes, by the way. It's the feature that got Substack banned from Twitter

This graphic from the International Monetary Fund shows how global the increase in inflation has been. The United States does not particularly stand out in this global phenomenon. #CoSoFinance

If you're in Las Vegas starting next Monday, consider checking out the Las Vegas MoneyShow. I'l be there, doing a presentation and a panel, and a bunch of very smart people will share their investment insights. https://conferences.moneyshow.com/moneyshow-las-vegas/speakers/50a8463072b6404a8b1a00fe930f4ecc/sean-brodrick/

Bloomberg is hammering that this leak of sensitive documents is an embarrassment for the Biden Adminstration. Really? Did Biden hire this a-hole? Does Biden set the hiring/review policy for the Air Force? What exactly is Biden's connection to this, Bloomberg? Or are you just desperate to find a Democratic scandal because the Republicans have so many? #CoSoPolitics

Businesses are turning very pessimistic. I'm not discounting what business owners are experiencing. But the relentless firehose of "bad news" pushed by FOX News has to be part of this. #CoSoFinance

Wage growth for job switchers (gold) and stayers (blue) reaccelerated in March, with switchers moving to 7.3% and stayers to 5.9% #CoSoFinance

US retail sales increased 1.5% over the last year, the lowest growth rate since May 2020 & well below the historical average of 4.8%. After adjusting for inflation, though, the story is far worse. Real retail sales fell 3.3% over the last year, the 7th consecutive monthly YoY decline. #CoSoFinance

More on PPI, because everyone is worried about #inflation, and producer prices feed through to consumer prices. For first time since April 2020, both headline and core PPI fell month over month … former -0.5% and latter -0.1%. Both are the largest decreases since April 2020 #CoSoFinance #economics

Americans who applied for unemployment benefits last week rose by 11,000 to 239,000, indicating a small but steady increase in layoffs in a generally strong U.S. labor market. Yet companies are still hiring a lot more people than they are firing in a sign of ongoing labor-market strength. The U.S. added a robust 236,000 new jobs in March. #economics #CoSoFinance

World #oil markets may be under supplied by about 2 million barrels a day in the fourth quarter as a result of cutbacks announced by Saudi Arabia and its OPEC+ partners https://tinyurl.com/2p93c76c

#stocks get a lift this morning as Producer Price Index drops. March PPI shows significant downside surprise at -0.5% m/m vs. 0% est, and 2.7% y/y vs. 3% est. Falling energy prices helped, and services was weakest since Mar 2020. #CoSoFinance #economy

Here's a chart from the Resource Trader issue going out this morning. The $XLE seems to be forming a bull flag. On a successful resolution of this pattern, the target is $99.70 #CoSoFinance

You're probably missing out on recent gains from non-U.S. stocks. Here's why that needs to change https://www.marketwatch.com/story/youre-probably-missing-out-on-recent-gains-from-non-u-s-stocks-heres-why-that-needs-to-change-ae664c18

Sure looks like a bull flag forming in energy stocks ($XLE). And as the saying goes, "flags fly at half mast." #bullish #CoSoFinance

Operating profits are expected to have shrunk by 6.8% last quarter, according to an average of Wall Street forecasts compiled by FactSet. Next quarter is expected to see another decline. #CoSoFinance

One source of stock weakness in Q4 is that share buybacks dried up, down by more than 20% compared with 2021 during the fourth quarter. And activity has remained weak. Source: Goldman Sachs/Marketwatch #CoSoFinance

Good Friday's non-farm payrolls figures suggested the jobs market remains solid, with unemployment back at more than 50-year lows. Average job gains remain far above where they were before the pandemic. #economy #CoSoFinance

March’s gain in nonfarm payrolls means U.S. economy has now added slightly more than 1 million jobs in first quarter of 2023 #economy #CoSoFinance