The U.S. dollar index is bouncing this morning. A weekly weekly chart shows the bounce comes from the bottom of the greenback's range. This bounce should push gold & silver lower (temporarily) #CoSoFinance

#Gold may be pulling back this morning, but weekly gold still looks very strong. #CoSoFinance

China’s yuan replaces the US dollar as the most traded currency in Russia, a year after the invasion of Ukraine led to a slew of Western sanctions against Moscow #CoSoFinance https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-04-03/china-s-yuan-replaces-dollar-as-most-traded-currency-in-russia?utm_source=website&utm_medium=share&utm_campaign=twitter

Personal savings rate continues to move higher from recent low and increased to 4.6% in February from 4.4% in January #CoSoFinance

#crude #oil surges as Saudis lead OPEC+ to 1 million bpd production cut: Just 2 weeks ago, money managers had largest short position in Brent and WTI crude since November 2020. The last time they made such a big bet against oil , Saudi Arabia’s Prince Abdulaziz said he wanted those leave them “ouching like hell” #CoSoFinance https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-04-03/what-next-for-oil-after-surprise-opec-cuts-try-100-a-barrel

January S&P CoreLogic CS Home Price Index (blue) +3.79% y/y vs. +5.63% prior … 20-city Index (orange) +2.55% y/y vs. +2.60% est. & +4.62% prior … pandemic boom clearly over #Economics #CoSoFinance #Housing

From Liz Young: Despite being up 20% in 2023, mortgage activity is still down 62% since the end of 2021. Historically, mtg activity leads home prices by a year--so far that relationship is holding up. Unless demand picks up notably, there could be more downside. #CoSoFinance

Check out the bullish volume on this weekly chart of #GDX #Gold #Miners #CoSoFinance

Now let's look at performance by sector. Communications Services and tech are leading the way higher. #CoSoFinance

Stock performance by market cap through Monday. Small caps are underperforming as money positions in the better known names. #CoSoFinance

Money appears to be flowing out of U.S. Treasuries and into #gold. #CoSoFinance https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/us-global-investors-stock-financial-markets-3837842c

Buh-bye, rate hike expectations. Hello, rate cuts. Why? Because more bank failures would be deflationary, and now both Deutsche Bank and First Republic are under scruitiny. Also, see my earlier post about $1.7 trillion in unrealized losses on bank books. #CoSoFinance

Waiting on copper to break its recent downtrend #CoSoFinance

Some charts on the housing market. https://wolfstreet.com/2023/03/21/home-prices-drop-year-over-year-first-time-since-housing-bust-1-sales-bounce-from-deep-dismal-to-just-dismal/

The next shoe to drop could be the real estate bubble. And if it happened, such an event would hammer already weakened banks. #CoSoFinance

The question for the Fed this week isn't whether to hike 25bp or 50bp on Wednesday. It's when do they start cutting rates, at least according to fed funds futures, which have priced out rate cuts and priced in rate cuts as soon as June. #CoSoFinance

Bloomberg's Financial Conditions Index went from loose (green) to the tightest since Mar 2020. Gives the Fed an excuse to pause rate hikes on Wednesday if it wants to. On the other hand, I'm worried the Fed is too fixated on inflation to care. #CoSoFinance

Value is starting to underperform growth (again!) as the market figures the Fed is done tightening and will start cutting rates as soon as June! Using the Russell 1000 Value Index (#IWD) and Russell 1000 Growth (#IWF) here. Watch support.

Barrons has an EXTREMELY bearish story on oil today, saying $40 is a potential target. https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/oil-price-per-barrel-opec-economy-5b1df0af

If gold miners as tracked by the GDX close at current levels, we'll have a spinning top, indicating indecision. Not surprising because #gold is waiting to hear what the Fed has to say. See you Wednesday #CoSoFinance