I know people are feeling more bullish, but consider: The S&P 500 is under its short-term, intermediate-term, and long-term trends. Friday's bearish volume was a flood. I'll wait and see the market's reaction to the Fed announcement on Wednesday before making any new moves. #CoSoFinance

Consumer Sentiment Index from University of Michigan fell in March to 63.4 vs. 67 est. & 67 prior; expectations fell to 61.5 vs. 64.7 prior; current conditions down to 66.4 vs. 70.7 prior. That was the first time in 4 months it fell, and 85% of the survey was completed before the recent banking crisis. #CoSoFinance

SVB was a fraction of its recent size when the Trump administration and congressional Republicans led a bipartisan effort to roll back banking regulations in 2018, ending automatic annual stress testing for banks smaller than $250 billion in assets.

SVB became the fastest-growing major bank in the nation over the past five years. By this year, it was the country’s 16th largest by assets.

Assets on the Fed's balance sheet increasing $297 billion over the last week, the largest spike higher since March 2020. Thus nearly half of the Quantitative Tightening since last April was undone in a single week. The spike was not due to asset purchases (Treasuries and MBS holdings actually declined) but from a $303 billion increase in "Loans." Part of that was the new Bank Term Funding Program ($12 billion) #CoSoFinance

Dems are very good at capitalism, as these charts show. https://simonwdc.substack.com/p/nyt-another-stronger-than-expected #CoSoEconomics

In 1 hour, at 11:15 today, I'll make a presentation for the MoneyShow. I talk about investments that can do well in inflation, including #Copper and #oil. Watch it: https://online.moneyshow.com/2023/march/accredited-virtual-expo/speakers/50a8463072b6404a8b1a00fe930f4ecc/sean-brodrick/

At 11:15 today, I'll be making a presentation for the MoneyShow. I talk about investments that can do well in inflation. #Copper and #oil, sure, but also strategies on when you want to buy i-bonds, etc. https://online.moneyshow.com/2023/march/accredited-virtual-expo/speakers/50a8463072b6404a8b1a00fe930f4ecc/sean-brodrick/

Price action tells us that #inflation is putting the bite on Kellogg (K).

Weekly #Crude #oil chart (West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. oil benchmark) shows more sideways action. What about rising China demand? What about Russian oil cuts? Oil shrugs off that news. Oil traders are likely to die of boredom #CoSoFinance

Rally in the small-cap Russell 2000 Index #IWM last week on good volume; that brings it right up to overhead resistance. Wait to see how it works out. #CoSoFinance

The daily S&P 500 $SPX bounced from support at both its broken downtrend and the 200-day moving average last week. I'm watching the 4060-4080 zone as overhead resistance. We should know this week. #CoSoFinance

So what's driving the action in metals? The zig-zag in the U.S. dollar. The weekly greenback chart bounced off support a few weeks ago, and now is up against overhead resistance. This MAY be make or break time, or it could confound bulls and bears and keep channeling. #CoSoFinance

Daily #silver bounced from its 200-day moving average last week. Risk-takers will be buying; more prudent investors need to see more bullish action. #CoSoFinance

Nice move in #NatGas last week, but it's still not out of the wood. Bulls will hope for more constructive action this week. #CoSoFinance

Weekly #gold also bounced from support, but daily chart shows the yellow metal is up against 2 levels of overhead resistance. We should see a break one way or the other. #CoSoFinance

Weekly #copper bounced from support again last week. #CoSoFinance

New York, whose governor proposed making it the first state to ban gas appliances and heating in new construction, is home to almost 1 in 10 US households with a gas stove. https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-01-13/gas-stove-vs-induction-war-heats-up-at-home

Happy Friday! If you're looking for something to read, and you like the Steampunk genre, here's a book recommendation. #CoSoFiction https://www.amazon.com/Gods-Steam-Sean-Brodrick-ebook/dp/B0BWSXT4LG/ref=sr_1_1

This morning, traders started pricing in a 5.5% fed funds rate by September. For reference, the Fed Funds rate is currently 4.5% to 4.75%. I believe traders are still too optimistic, and the Fed will likely go to 6%. #CoSoFinance

The market is a grand casino, to be sure. My bet is the S&P 500 $SPX rallies today after testing its 200-day moving average. That does not mean it is out of the woods. It's rare to break through the 200-day MA on the first try. The bigger test will be that uptrend I've marked. #CoSoFinance