I used to do these every week to ten days at bird app, so consider this the opening of these.
First off, regarding Kherson.
It’s not clear where we are precisely. Flags are off. Russians seem to be taking anything not bolted to the ground
This tells me they are ultimately leave the city. Whether they will hold to the rest of the oblast is a good question. They are setting a defense in depth to try.
Zaporizhia may have to wait until the spring. Winter will have some issues. The east shows some progress. Yesterday a video appeared of Ukraine forces in Bakhmut.
Now to the Russian army
They are having some riots in proper Russia. Whether these are more like protests or riots, depends. It’s an issue of training and supply. But Russia still believes a large army can overcome better weapons, and a NATO standard army
The Turbo patriots, to use the Russian term, get it
Now danger will Robinson, Prighozhin is strengthening his position, including militia units. We may be seeing the very early stages of an internal civil war. It’s in my bingo card, but time.
Finally, there are rumors Putin is not running for president. Today we got more than just rumor, that Dmitry Patrushev might succeed Putin. This is big, because we may be heading to a February 1917 style revolution.
History does not repeat, but it does rhyme.
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