Ahead of the line, winds will be changing speed and direction with height. IF, and that's a big IF, any storms are able to pop ahead of the line, they'd likely rotate and could produce an isolated significant tornado. However, it's unclear if storms will be able to fire ahead of the main line.

That's why tomorrow will likely be a "boom or bust" day, as is often the case in the cold season. Stay weather aware!

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There is an increasing risk of severe weather across portions of the Plains tomorrow.

Kansas City has a "conditional" risk for an isolated significant tornado, as does the I-44 corridor northeast of Oklahoma City.

The setup is simple: a front is marching east into warm and humid air. Dry air behind the front will kick the moisture upwards into storms. Strong jet stream winds will add momentum, and any storms will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts.

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Central U.S. fire danger

Warm, dry and windy conditions will lead to extreme fire danger for portions of the Plains, Corn Belt, Great Lakes and Midwest. MyRadar meteorologist Matthew Cappucci breaks down the risk.

https://myradar.com/videos/5499

Connect with us to learn how our weather solutions can help you better prepare for and respond to hailstorms, optimizing your operations and minimizing damage costs.

https://business.myradar.com/contact/

Mitigating Risk in an Era of Increasing Hail Threats II

And in a warming world where large hail is projected to become more common and population centers will continue to expand, mitigating property risk will become an even more imperative endeavor.

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Mitigating Risk in an Era of Increasing Hail Threats I

For property owners or insurers, knowing when severe hail will strike can be a game changer. Even a small amount of advanced notice can afford time to move a vehicle into a garage or cover exposed property. On the large scale, tens of billions of dollars could be saved annually by taking minor, but strategic, steps ahead of the incidence of large hail.

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Challenges in Forecasting and Understanding Giant Hail

Yet hail is still somewhat poorly understood by scientists. Meteorologists struggle to estimate the maximum size of hail using radar alone, and radar-derived algorithms — like MESH, or Maximum Estimated Size of Hail — are inherently flawed. What more, giant hail can occur in a wide array of very different atmospheric environments that transcend seasons and geography. Even Hawaii and Massachusetts have reported softballs-sized hail before.

Widespread Destruction: Hail's Impact on Farms and Cities. III

During that same episode, a “gargantuan” 6.4-inch stone was recovered near Hondo, west of San Antonio. It held the Texas state record until a 7 to 8 inch cantaloup-sized stone fell in the Texas Panhandle on June 2 of this year.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2024/06/03/texas-hail-melon-storm-record/

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Widespread Destruction: Hail's Impact on Farms and Cities. II

But in cities, a single unlucky hailstorm can total tens of thousands of cars and easily become a billion-dollar disaster — even without any human casualties. On Wednesday, April 28, 2021, baseball- to softball-sized hail pelted suburbs of Oklahoma City, Dallas and San Antonio.

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Widespread Destruction: Hail's Impact on Farms and Cities. I

That’s why hail is a costly hazard in both rural and urban areas. A small tornado might carve through only a fraction of a cornfield, but a hailstorm might have a hail swath five miles wide and fifty miles long — leading to a footprint thousands of times greater. From an agricultural standpoint, hail is a plague.

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Why Hailstorms Outpace Tornadoes in Damage Costs II

Hailstorms begin to produce damage once hail size exceeds one inch in diameter, which the National Weather Service considers “severe.” That’s around the point when vegetation is impacted. Golf ball-sized hail can ravage crops, and anything bigger can easily shatter vehicle windows and cause dents. Larger stones the size of baseballs can strip siding from homes, and softball- to grapefruit-sized hail often causes structural damage.

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Why Hailstorms Outpace Tornadoes in Damage Costs

Hail is far more expensive than thunderstorm winds or tornadoes. During a 25-year span in Texas, there were 36 thunderstorms that caused $100 million or more in damages. Twenty-nine of the disasters were from large to giant hail.

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The Real Price Of Giant Hail

A Thread Article by @MatthewCappucci

Hail affects the United States an average of 250 days per year. In just the past 18 months, more than $100 billion in losses can be attributed to hail. And new research states that big hailstorms are becoming more frequent — and, it follows, more costly.

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Severe Storms On The Plains

A multi-day episode of strong to severe thunderstorms is possible across the central Plains on Tuesday and especially Wednesday. Damaging winds and large hail are the main concerns.

MyRadar meteorologist Matthew Cappucci has a severe weather preview.

https://myradar.com/videos/5498

MyRadar Winter Outlook

What will this winter hold? An emerging La Niña pattern will contribute to a warm and wet winter for much of the central and southern U.S.; the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies could be colder and snowier. MyRadar meteorologist Matthew Cappucci examines.

https://myradar.com/videos/5495

There is an increasing risk that the Central American Gyre, or a broad zone if diffuse spin that will be present in the western Caribbean, could squeak out a storm next week.

If vorticity (spin) tightens, we could see a named storm form around Halloween.

Why is it so incredibly dry in the Mid-Atlantic?

Look at where the wind is coming from compared to average — much more out of the NW and not the S.

Hamster Note:

Hey folks, so the Meteorology team was kept VERY busy over the previous few weeks with the hurricanes and other events, so it's not your imagination, they were using the past few days to relax and recover from running around the U.S.

We should be getting back to regular daily reporting here shortly.

Fire danger and drought in the Northeast

Hardly a drop of rain has fallen across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, leading to emerging drought and fire weather. MyRadar meteorologist Matthew Cappucci breaks down the latest.

https://myradar.com/videos/5494

🌀#Kristy se ha intensificado rápidamente en el Pacífico oriental y ahora es un huracán de categoría 3 con vientos de 125 mph (205 km/h)

Eso es un aumento de 45 mph en solo 25 horas.

Afortunadamente, Kristy permanecerá sobre el océano como un huracán intenso antes de debilitarse viernes por la noche