Textual Forecast Thread from Matthew Cappucci
Confidence is high in a life-threatening storm surge somewhere along the central Gulf Coast of Florida. Milton, which reached Category 5 status on Monday north of the Yucatan Peninsula, is expected to slam Florida on Wednesday evening as a Category 3 major hurricane.
Textual Forecast Thread from Matthew Cappucci
The storm’s wind field will be expanding, allowing it to more easily pile water against the coast. A dangerous surge of 10 feet or more is likely south of where the eye makes landfall. That’s where onshore eyewall winds will most efficiently push water inland.
It’s likely that landfall will occur somewhere between just north of Tampa Bay and Port Charlotte. But subtle shifts of only a few miles will have enormous bearings on outcomes.
Textual Forecast Thread from Matthew Cappucci
It remains to be seen which specific communities are most heavily impacted.
In addition to surge, winds gusting around 100 mph at the coastline near the storm’s core might cause damage. Tampa proper may see winds of 90 mph on Wednesday evening, and Lakeland could get gusts of 80 mph during the first part of the overnight.
Textual Forecast Thread from Matthew Cappucci
Orlando too should see winds gusting near 75 mph at peak.
Heavy rains on the order of 6 to 8 inches will be common across central Florida where Milton marches across the Peninsula, with localized totals of a foot or more near and just north of the storm’s path.
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Textual Forecast Thread from Matthew Cappucci
If the eye passes just north of Tampa Bay, a worst-case scenario event will unfold. Yet if the eye slips south of Tampa Bay, offshore winds will mitigate surge impacts; that same scenario, however, would be a worst-case scenario for Sarasota, Venice or Siesta Key, since they would see the onshore winds.
Simply stated, it’s virtually inevitable that some communities will see a destructive and disastrous storm surge.