Megan McArdle in WaPo on our new normal...
Now that the virus is endemic, Americans will be only as safe as our least competent county health department can make us. Whatever is happening 3,000 miles away will eventually show up at your doorstep. Until a vaccine is created or herd immunity is reached, we are going to have to adapt to the constant threat.
Let’s assume we’re not going to try for herd immunity, for two reasons. First, unless much better treatments are developed, reaching herd immunity is likely to involve a large number of deaths as well as not-yet-quantified — and possibly debilitating or permanent — severe complications. Second, antibodies appear to quickly decline to undetectable levels in at least some patients.
Third, we need not just freely available mass testing but also a reliable process for certifying a recent test result — and a lack of shame about demanding to see a very recent certificate before letting someone into your home or place of business.
They will be very, very hard for governments and businesses to execute competently.
In fact, the only thing that can be said for them is that they aren’t the two failed solutions we’ve already tried: ignoring the virus in the hope that it won’t be so bad or huddling in our houses and waiting for a medical breakthrough that may be years away.
This means there is a small but real chance that it might be impossible to reach herd immunity without a good vaccine. It could be years before such a thing exists.
Here are three suggestions that deserve more attention.
First, move everything outdoors — as much as possible and much more than has been done already.
Second, we need masks. Not just more people wearing them but also better masks.