@RationalLeft @LiberalLibrarian yup sample size and content is everything. as my former boss (a stats whiz who graduated from MIT in '68 - one of the first women to do so. She also helped keep me from failing Business Stats) says: you can make #s say anything you want.
@LiberalLibrarian this is why I do not pay attention to any polling anymore until at least August, of that voting year.
Not the outlier data, not primary data samples, nothing. All of it is just a tool for media to create buzz and get 'dem clicks.
I just don't give them what that want anymore.
@SentinelOfTruth @LiberalLibrarian EXACTLY. I don't even pay attention to the polls I get from yougov (after I've taken them and got my little points towards a gift card, that is lol)
@LiberalLibrarian This is merely GQP bloviating. There's still those little matters of a few trials to get deal with, which might have Lumpy running for the White House from the Big House.
@LiberalLibrarian They'll have oversampled Rs for the R primary component of the poll, and then they'll have used some fancy algorithm to "compensate" for the oversample... which of course means adjusting the poll based on their assumption about the composition of the electorate.
Polling is only reliable in blowout races. In a polarized country, you can get basically any result by how you weight the sample.